The gaudy gong season for films is nearing it's big bang finish and it's time to make some predictions;
Best picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon Milk
The Reader Slumdog
Millionaire
This is probably between Slumdog and Benjamin Button and it seems Slumdog has the momentum picking plenty of other shiny things on the way here so I expect it to pick up the prize here too. Still think Button is better though.
Best director
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon Gus Van Sant - Milk
This I do think will end up going elsewhere than the Best Picture so I'm going to plump for David Fincher on the basis he manages to tell a coherent 60 year long story, piece together ground breaking effects, stop for interludes on fate and make you care about what is going on. Danny on the other hand just did a solid job bringing a good story to the screen, no boundaries really pushed there.
Best actor
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
I'll be choke slammed if this isn't Mickey's. Hollywood loves a rise and fall and rise story and that is Mr Rourke all over. It also helps that the performance was excellent too, rising an average film up to something more
Best actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader
This seems to be Kate's, but her performance in Revolutionary Road is probably the better (thought the souring of the American dream nature of that film might well be why it isn't the performance they choose!) Anne Hathaway is probably a decent outside bet but I'd go for Kate.
Best supporting actress
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Something tells me it's going to be Penelope Cruz as she finds her form of a few years ago. The girl is good if the script is good (and that accent is adorable)
Best supporting actor
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
In any other year I'd say it had to be Downey Jr's outrageous turn in Tropic Thunder but with the events of the year it will be Heath Ledger's turn as Joker that takes the prize. Who will accept the award for him though is the question?
Best foreign language film
Revanche - Austria
The Class - France
The Baader Meinhof Complex - Germany
Departures - Japan
Waltz With Bashir - Israel
It's either The Class or Waltz With Bashir, I'm going to plump for The Class as it's more recent release will probably give it the push to get over the line first.
Best animated feature film
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Wall-E in all probability unless Pixar have put enough noses out of joint, in which case it will be Kung Fu Panda.
Best adapted screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Hard to call, if one of the big boys aren't sweeping all before them than Frost/Nixon has a good shout. Will probably be Slumdog though.
Best original screenplay
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Wall-E
In Bruges
Frozen River
Between Wall-E and In Bruges for me, and I'll pluck for the hitmen based dark comedy which manages to slow change into something more affecting than you expect without you really noticing.
Well them's my picks for the big categories and all that remains is too see just how wrong I've got it. People may complain about back slapping and certain types of films always winning but I'll still take the Academy Awards over any witless Audience Awards anyday, since it's the audience that means those painful 'Movie' movies kept getting made.
2 comments:
Pretty much on par with me as well, although I would object to the lack of the inclusion of Best Film Editing as one of the "big categories". Just in case you were not aware the correlation between best picture and best film editing is stronger than with any other award apart from best director. In fact since 1981, every film selected as Best Picture has also been nominated for the Film Editing Oscar. Plus about two thirds of the Best Picture winners have also won for Film Editing and half of the time (13 out of 26) in that time period the winner of best film editing has also won best picture.
So the nominations are:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
The Dark Knight - Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon - Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
Milk - Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens
And I'm calling Lee Smith on this one :-)
Sorry for the lack of mention my esteemed editor!
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