Baldie Statue time!

Well, here go on the final straight of film awards season. The first thing to note is looks like I will have to catch up with The King's Speech soon!

But seriously looking at the main categories it's pretty much the expected suspects making up the numbers. So let's have a look at the runners and riders;


BEST PICTURE
127 HOURS (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
BLACK SWAN (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
INCEPTION (Warner Bros Pictures)
THE FIGHTER (Relativity Media/Paramount Pictures)
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Focus Features)
THE KING'S SPEECH (The Weinstein Co)
THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Sony Pictures)
TOY STORY 3 (Pixar/Walt Disney Studios)
TRUE GRIT (Paramount Pictures)
WINTER'S BONE (Roadside Attractions)

It's a decent selection this year with nothing in there that makes you think it's been included to try and popularise the event, everything named honestly would seem to merit inclusion. A couple of popular crowd pleasers in there with Toy Story 3 and Inception but crucially they were actually good. Nice to see Winter's Bone get a mention.
But this is one is most likely already a case of straight up fight between The King's Speech and The Social Network. It seems Social Network has the zeitgeist and King's Speech the momentum so it's hard to call but I'm going to call King's Speech to pick this one up.

BEST ACTOR
JEFF BRIDGES - TRUE GRIT (Paramount Pictures)
JAVIER BARDEM - BIUTIFUL (Roadside Attractions)
JESSE EISENBERG - THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Sony Pictures)
COLIN FIRTH - THE KING’S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)
JAMES FRANCO - 127 HOURS (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Again a decent set of nominations, Jeff Bridges got an award for being Jeff Bridges (ie awesome)last year so I think he's out. I think it might be between James Franco and Colin Firth for this one with Firth most likely coming out the winner.

BEST ACTRESS
ANNETTE BENING - THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Focus Features)
NICOLE KIDMAN - RABBIT HOLE (Lionsgate)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE - WINTER’S BONE (Roadside Attractions)
NATALIE PORTMAN - BLACK SWAN (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS - BLUE VALENTINE (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

I think here we're pretty much looking at Natalie Portman picking this one up since she's been picking up the awards throughout the season. Jennifer Lawrence may be an outside bet since she is absolutely excellent in Winter's Bone, also great to see Michelle Williams (who has been quietly impressive for a few years) get a nod. Plus notice once Nicole Kidman ditches the botox she returns to the nominations!


BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
CHRISTIAN BALE - THE FIGHTER (Paramount Pictures)
JOHN HAWKES - WINTER’S BONE (Roadside Attractions)
JEREMY RENNER - THE TOWN (Warner Bros Pictures)
MARK RUFFALO - THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Focus Features)
GEOFFREY RUSH - THE KING’S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)

A bit of mixed bag, Renner wasn't that good in The Town, which might see method madness steer it the way of Christian Bale's emaciated turn in The Fighter as Rush already has one and so won't win for just being him Jeff Bridges style.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
AMY ADAMS - THE FIGHTER (Paramount Pictures)
HELENA BONHAM CARTER - THE KING’S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)
MELISSA LEO - THE FIGHTER (Paramount Pictures)
HAILEE STEINFELD - TRUE GRIT (Paramount Pictures)
JACKIE WEAVER - ANIMAL KINGDOM (Sony Pictures Classics)

Hmm, hard to call here, but word seems to possible point this one in Amy Adams direction but none of the performances are distinctly ahead of any the other's mentioned. If King's Speech is on a role though by this point expect Mrs Burton to take the award home


BEST ANIMATED PICTURE
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON (DreamWorks Animation)
TOY STORY 3 (Pixar/Walt Disney Studios)
THE ILLUSIONIST (Sony Pictures Classics)

It's Toy Story 3. It will be. Always bet on the Pixar.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
“The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
“Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
“True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

I think The Social Network will probably take the baldie here though there is much love for the Coen's work with True Grit. I admit I'm not sure why Toy Story 3 is in this category.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
“The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
“Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
“The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
“The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

Most likely to be The King's Speech again here but Inception's screenplay that combined intelligence with big time thrills for a summer audience might have a shout at this one. The Kids Are All Right is probably you're best 'outside' bet though.

DIRECTING
DARREN ARONOFSKY, Black Swan
DAVID O RUSSEL, Fighter
TOM HOOPER, King;s Speech
DAVID FINCHER, Social Network
JOEL AND ETHAN COEN, True Grit

Now I suspect King's Speech might well pick up a lot of awards but I have a hunch that this will go David Fincher's way. Social Network was not only entertaining for a story about civil lawsuits and internet start-ups but was also a technical masterpiece in it's construction. Though I can possibly see Black Swan's delirium turning a few eyes. But I'm betting on Fincher here.